Week 8 play of the week
32.6UPS points · Josh Martel
Week 8 recap
UPS CENTER
At the desk: Stuart, Rich & Boomer · Kenny Mayne in the Coffee Shop
Bear Dunn led Week 8 with 307.6. Automated draft from the league’s own data, awaiting the editor.
1 The Big Story — Bear Dunn is on a historic pace
Stuart
Bear Dunn scored 307.6 in Week 8, the best score of the week, and beat all eleven teams in All-Play. Bear Dunn is 19–2 overall and 78–10 in All-Play through Week 8, a better start than all but 1 earlier team in the league archive.
Rich
Here is what 78–10 means. Since 2011, 180 teams have reached Week 8 with a full record in the league archive. One had a better All-Play record at this point: Josh Martel’s 2018 team, which was 84–4.
Stuart
That is .886 for Bear Dunn. The best start in the archive, Josh Martel’s 2018 team, was .955. After Bear Dunn, the next best starts are Derrick Whitman’s 2013 team at 73–15, Derrick Whitman’s 2015 team at 72–16, and Josh Martel’s 2021 team at 70–18.
Rich
A great start is not a title. Of the 4 earlier teams in the table, 1 won the title and 1 lost the final.
Stuart
In the archive, Bear Dunn’s best start was 67–21 in 2014 and the worst was 21–67 in 2017. The forecast gives Bear Dunn a 99.8% chance at the first-round bye and a 39.3% chance at the title; the next best title odds belong to Brian Cutting at 23.2%.
| Best All-Play starts through Week 8, 2011–2026 | Through Week 8 | Pct | How the season ended |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 · Josh Martel | 84–4 | .955 | Lost the final |
| 2026 · Bear Dunn | 78–10 | .886 | In progress |
| 2013 · Derrick Whitman | 73–15 | .830 | Champion |
| 2015 · Derrick Whitman | 72–16 | .818 | Third |
| 2021 · Josh Martel | 70–18 | .795 | Third |
All-Play counts every team’s weekly score against all eleven others, Weeks 1–8 of the regular season. Source: the league archive of weekly results, 2011–2025, plus the 2026 standings. 2010 is left out because its archived weekly scores conflict with themselves. The finish is the archive’s final standing.
2 Division Week — every game, one chapter per division
Stuart
Dog Pound 4 Life. Bear Dunn scored 307.6 and went 2–0: beat Eric Mannila by 89.5, Chris Klingenberg by 78.4.
Rich
Chris Klingenberg scored 229.2 and went 1–1: beat Eric Mannila by 11.1; lost to Bear Dunn by 78.4.
Stuart
Eric Mannila scored 218.1 and went 0–2: lost to Bear Dunn by 89.5, Chris Klingenberg by 11.1. The best available lineup, 244.5, would have won a game Eric Mannila lost.
Rich
Bear Dunn is 99.9% to win the division, the best chance of the three.
Rich
Outlast PG Time. Eric Martel scored 243.5 and went 2–0: beat Brian Cross by 61.7, Brian Cutting by 39.6.
Stuart
Brian Cutting scored 203.9 and went 1–1: beat Brian Cross by 22.1; lost to Eric Martel by 39.6.
Rich
Brian Cross scored 181.8 and went 0–2: lost to Eric Martel by 61.7, Brian Cutting by 22.1. The best available lineup, 211.0, would have won a game Brian Cross lost.
Rich
Eric Martel is 84.8% to win the division, the best chance of the three.
Stuart
Legion of Boom. Shawn Blake scored 210.7 and went 2–0: beat Derrick Whitman by 44.5, Matt Gerardi by 24.1.
Rich
Matt Gerardi scored 186.6 and went 1–1: beat Derrick Whitman by 20.4; lost to Shawn Blake by 24.1. The best available lineup, 215.7, would have won a game Matt Gerardi lost.
Stuart
Derrick Whitman scored 166.2 and went 0–2: lost to Shawn Blake by 44.5, Matt Gerardi by 20.4. The best available lineup, 188.5, would have won a game Derrick Whitman lost.
Rich
Shawn Blake is 79.9% to win the division, the best chance of the three.
Rich
Maddie Mondays. Josh Martel scored 218.5 and went 2–0: beat Keith Creelman by 35.0, Ryan Bousquet by 4.2.
Stuart
Ryan Bousquet scored 214.3 and went 1–1: beat Keith Creelman by 30.8; lost to Josh Martel by 4.2. The best available lineup, 235.2, would have won a game Ryan Bousquet lost.
Rich
Keith Creelman scored 183.5 and went 0–2: lost to Josh Martel by 35.0, Ryan Bousquet by 30.8. The best available lineup, 220.7, would have won a game Keith Creelman lost.
Rich
Keith Creelman is 75.5% to win the division, the best chance of the three.
EDITOR REVIEW — Kenny Mayne’s lines are an editor’s job (owner dossier). Choose from the verbatim candidates, weave each into the chapter it belongs to as a
lt kenny line with its link, then remove this box. 1 message(s) ruled out by an editor or touching family, health or similar were withheld and must not be used. 50 candidate line(s) are listed, verbatim, linked and grouped by division, in the local review copy only (raw chat stays off the public repo).| Division | Swept | Split | Shut out |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dog Pound 4 Life | Bear Dunn 307.6 | Chris Klingenberg 229.2 | Eric Mannila 218.1 |
| Outlast PG Time | Eric Martel 243.5 | Brian Cutting 203.9 | Brian Cross 181.8 |
| Legion of Boom | Shawn Blake 210.7 | Matt Gerardi 186.6 | Derrick Whitman 166.2 |
| Maddie Mondays | Josh Martel 218.5 | Ryan Bousquet 214.3 | Keith Creelman 183.5 |
Week 8 scores after Elias corrections. A team is Swept when it won every game it played in the group, Shut out when it won none and Split otherwise. Chat lines, once an editor chooses them, are owner posts in the league Discord, linked to the message.
3 Elias — a correction moved the board
Stuart
The league office posted 23 official stat changes for Week 8, and 2 touched UPS starters: Tuli Tuipulotu’s quarterback hits went from 1 to 2, a change of +0.5 for Josh Martel; Dane Belton’s tackles went from 9 to 8, a change of −0.5 for Keith Creelman.
Rich
Josh Martel went from 218.0 to 218.5 and Keith Creelman went from 184.0 to 183.5. Every number in this issue already counts the corrected scores.
Stuart
That moved an All-Play game: Josh Martel’s Week 8 All-Play went from 7–4 to 8–3 and Eric Mannila’s Week 8 All-Play went from 8–3 to 7–4. Their season records moved with it: Josh Martel is 22–66, not 21–67 and Eric Mannila is 41–47, not 42–46.
Rich
No head-to-head result flipped.
| Team | Published | After Elias | Change | Week 8 All-Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Martel | 218.0 | 218.5 | +0.5 | 7–4 → 8–3 |
| Keith Creelman | 184.0 | 183.5 | −0.5 | unchanged |
| Eric Mannila | 218.1 | 218.1 | 0.0 | 8–3 → 7–4 |
Source: MFL site news, Official Statistics Changes (23 items for Week 8), compared with the scores frozen when the recap was built. The league message goes out because an All-Play record changed.
4 Playoff Picture — updated after Week 8
Stuart
Here is the shape of it. Four division favorites: Bear Dunn at 99.9% to win Dog Pound 4 Life, Eric Martel at 84.8% to win Outlast PG Time, Shawn Blake at 79.9% to win Legion of Boom, and Keith Creelman at 75.5% to win Maddie Mondays.
Rich
Then the wild-card road: Brian Cutting is 95.7% to make the playoffs with a 15.2% chance of winning the division, Chris Klingenberg is 69.9% to make the playoffs with a 0.1% chance of winning the division, Derrick Whitman is 35.1% to make the playoffs with a 20.0% chance of winning the division, Ryan Bousquet is 22.4% to make the playoffs with a 22.3% chance of winning the division, and Eric Mannila is 10.2% to make the playoffs with a 0.0% chance of winning the division.
Stuart
And the bottom: Josh Martel at 2.2%, Matt Gerardi at 0.1%, and Brian Cross at 0.0%.
| Franchise | Playoffs | First-round bye | Wins division | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bear Dunn | 100.0% | 99.8% | 99.9% | 39.3% |
 Eric Martel | 99.7% | 78.0% | 84.8% | 18.6% |
 Brian Cutting | 95.7% | 13.6% | 15.2% | 23.2% |
 Shawn Blake | 88.5% | 8.0% | 79.9% | 9.1% |
 Keith Creelman | 76.1% | 0.1% | 75.5% | 3.5% |
 Chris Klingenberg | 69.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 3.8% |
 Derrick Whitman | 35.1% | 0.4% | 20.0% | 1.3% |
 Ryan Bousquet | 22.4% | 0.0% | 22.3% | 0.5% |
 Eric Mannila | 10.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| Josh Martel | 2.2% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
 Matt Gerardi | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
 Brian Cross | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Probabilities updated after Week 8 (Thu Nov 5, 8:23 AM ET), 10,000 simulated seasons. One team wins each division in every simulated season; division odds and the league’s title odds are rounded so each group still adds up to the whole.
5 The Plays That Made the Week — the bargains, the busts, and who they carried
Stuart
Start with the number nobody had. Joe Burrow was projected for 15.6 and scored 54.4 for Bear Dunn (48 passes, 453 air yards, 3 carries). That is +38.8, the biggest bargain of the week.
Rich
Tyler Allgeier was projected for 4.7 and scored 38.5 for Eric Mannila. Eric Mannila went 0–2, so a bargain is not a guarantee.
Stuart
Now the other side. Lamar Jackson was projected for 16.4 and scored 0.0 for Brian Cutting, a gap of −16.4; Brian Cutting scored 203.9 and went 1–1.
Rich
Zay Flowers was projected for 16.1 and scored 0.0 for Brian Cutting, a gap of −16.1; Brian Cutting scored 203.9.
Stuart
On defense, Quinnen Williams was projected for 4.3 and scored 17.5 for Shawn Blake.
Week 8 play of the week
35.5UPS points · Eric Martel
Ja'Marr Chase
11 catches on 16 targets for 141 and 1 TD; 1 tackles
Week 8 play of the week
54.4UPS points · Bear Dunn
Week 8 play of the week
35.0UPS points · Matt Gerardi
Patrick Mahomes
30-of-41 for 321, 3 TD; 2 carries for 6
The full projection ledger
Offense busts Projected → scored
- Lamar Jackson (QB, Brian Cutting)1 passes, 15 air yards · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET16.4 → 0.0-16.4
- Zay Flowers (WR, Brian Cutting)5 targets, 43 air yards · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET16.1 → 0.0-16.1
- Michael Penix Jr. (QB, Eric Martel)24 passes, 209 air yards, 5 carries · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET14.6 → -0.9-15.5
- Jacoby Brissett (QB, Keith Creelman)23 passes, 266 air yards, 3 carries · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET15.5 → 1.1-14.4
- Parker Washington (WR, Keith Creelman)2 targets, 19 air yards, 1 carry · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET18.4 → 4.0-14.4
Offense bargains Projected → scored
- Joe Burrow (QB, Bear Dunn)48 passes, 453 air yards, 3 carries · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET15.6 → 54.4+38.8
- Tyler Allgeier (RB, Eric Mannila)11 carries, 5 targets · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET4.7 → 38.5+33.8
- Harold Fannin (TE, Josh Martel)12 targets, 84 air yards · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET9.3 → 32.6+23.3
- Tee Higgins (WR, Bear Dunn)11 targets, 121 air yards · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET19.3 → 42.3+23.0
- Bhayshul Tuten (RB, Shawn Blake)16 carries, 2 targets · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET9.4 → 31.5+22.1
Defense busts Projected → scored
- Tykee Smith (DB, Derrick Whitman)MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET8.3 → 2.1-6.2
- Keisean Nixon (DB, Brian Cutting)MFL proj. Thu 7:47 PM ET · kickoff Thu 8:15 PM ET8.7 → 2.6-6.1
- Jack Campbell (LB, Eric Martel)MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET7.4 → 1.5-5.9
- Josiah Trotter (LB, Brian Cutting)MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET9.0 → 4.0-5.0
- Nik Bonitto (DL, Brian Cutting)MFL proj. Sun 2:20 PM ET · kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET6.4 → 2.0-4.4
Defense bargains Projected → scored
- Quinnen Williams (DL, Shawn Blake)MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET4.3 → 17.5+13.2
- Alex Anzalone (LB, Chris Klingenberg)MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET5.6 → 16.5+10.9
- CJ Allen (LB, Chris Klingenberg)MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET1.4 → 11.5+10.1
- Jordan Battle (DB, Brian Cross)MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET7.6 → 17.1+9.5
- George Karlaftis (DL, Chris Klingenberg)MFL proj. Sun 2:20 PM ET · kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET5.1 → 14.5+9.4
Started players only. Projection source: each player’s last MFL projection saved before his own kickoff, captured Thu Oct 29, 7:47 PM ET, Sun Nov 1, 12:03 PM ET, Sun Nov 1, 2:20 PM ET; every row shows its capture time and the player’s own kickoff, and every capture came first. 192 offensive and defensive starters graded; 0 not graded for want of a pregame capture. Largest gaps among graded starters, not every starter.
6 The Season So Far — who is real, who is rising, and what history says
Stuart
Treat the last three weeks as their own season. In Weeks 6–8, the Dominant teams in All-Play are Bear Dunn at 33–0 and Eric Martel at 29–4. The next best are Chris Klingenberg at 22–11 and Brian Cutting at 21–12.
Rich
The movers. Chris Klingenberg climbed from 8th in scoring in Weeks 1–5 to 4th in Weeks 6–8 and Shawn Blake fell from 2nd to 7th.
Stuart
Then ask what history says. Chris Klingenberg is where the two histories disagree most: 9 of 18 teams with the same All-Play rank made the playoffs, but 12 of 15 with the same win total did. The forecast lands at 69.9%.
Rich
At the bottom, Brian Cross is 3 of 18 by All-Play rank and 0 of 7 by wins, with a 0.0% forecast; Matt Gerardi is 1 of 17 by All-Play rank and 0 of 7 by wins, with a 0.1% forecast.
Stuart
And luck. Eric Mannila is +1.9 wins over what the All-Play rate predicts, the most in the league, and Shawn Blake is −2.0, the fewest. Brian Cutting leaves 42.0 points on the bench every week, the most, and 5 of 9 losses would have been wins with the best lineup.
The standings, Heat Check and Survival Line tables
| Franchise | Division | Record | Week 8 all-play | All-play | Points for |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Dunn | leader | 19–2 | 11–0 | 78–10 | 2,149.2 |
| Eric Martel | leader | 16–5 | 10–1 | 66–22 | 1,926.1 |
| Shawn Blake | leader | 11–10 | 5–6 | 53–35 | 1,824.3 |
| Brian Cutting | 12–9 | 4–7 | 52–36 | 1,803.8 | |
| Chris Klingenberg | 13–8 | 9–2 | 51–37 | 1,674.4 | |
| Keith Creelman | leader | 10–11 | 2–9 | 41–47 | 1,694.9 |
| Derrick Whitman | 11–10 | 0–11 | 49–39 | 1,729.7 | |
| Eric Mannila | 11–10 | 7–4 | 41–47 | 1,658.6 | |
| Ryan Bousquet | 8–13 | 6–5 | 30–58 | 1,545.6 | |
| Matt Gerardi | 4–17 | 3–8 | 23–65 | 1,484.2 | |
| Josh Martel | 6–15 | 8–3 | 22–66 | 1,472.8 | |
| Brian Cross | 5–16 | 1–10 | 22–66 | 1,519.2 |
In the same order as the league standings page: the current playoff field first (division leaders take the top two places), then everyone else; every place goes by all-play percentage, then overall record, then points for, then head-to-head.
| Week 8 matchup | Our favorite | Final | Called it? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Cutting vs Brian Cross | Brian Cutting (83%) | 203.9–181.8 | yes |
| Eric Martel vs Brian Cross | Eric Martel (82%) | 243.5–181.8 | yes |
| Bear Dunn vs Chris Klingenberg | Bear Dunn (78%) | 307.6–229.2 | yes |
| Keith Creelman vs Josh Martel | Keith Creelman (78%) | 183.5–218.5 | no |
| Bear Dunn vs Eric Mannila | Bear Dunn (77%) | 307.6–218.1 | yes |
| Keith Creelman vs Ryan Bousquet | Keith Creelman (66%) | 183.5–214.3 | no |
| Ryan Bousquet vs Josh Martel | Ryan Bousquet (64%) | 214.3–218.5 | no |
| Derrick Whitman vs Matt Gerardi | Derrick Whitman (52%) | 166.2–186.6 | no |
| Shawn Blake vs Matt Gerardi | Shawn Blake (52%) | 210.7–186.6 | yes |
| Brian Cutting vs Eric Martel | Brian Cutting (51%) | 203.9–243.5 | no |
| Shawn Blake vs Derrick Whitman | Shawn Blake (50%) | 210.7–166.2 | yes |
| Eric Mannila vs Chris Klingenberg | Eric Mannila (50%) | 218.1–229.2 | no |
Last week’s published preview, graded against the final scores: favorites won 6 of 12.
| Team Reading | All-Play Wks 6–8 (season) | Scoring rank Wks 1–5 → Wks 6–8 |
|---|---|---|
| Bear Dunn Dominant | 33–0 (78–10) | 1st → 1st |
| Eric Martel Dominant | 29–4 (66–22) | 3rd → 2nd |
| Chris Klingenberg Rising | 22–11 (51–37) | 8th → 4th |
| Brian Cutting Holding | 21–12 (52–36) | 4th → 3rd |
| Eric Mannila Holding | 18–15 (41–47) | 7th → 6th |
| Derrick Whitman Holding | 17–16 (49–39) | 6th → 5th |
| Shawn Blake Cooling | 13–20 (53–35) | 2nd → 7th |
| Josh Martel Holding | 11–22 (22–66) | 12th → 10th |
| Ryan Bousquet Holding | 10–23 (30–58) | 10th → 9th |
| Keith Creelman Holding | 9–24 (41–47) | 5th → 8th |
| Brian Cross Holding | 8–25 (22–66) | 9th → 12th |
| Matt Gerardi Holding | 7–26 (23–65) | 11th → 11th |
Sorted by All-Play over Weeks 6–8; the full-season All-Play record is in parentheses. Reading, applied in order: Dominant = at least 28 of every 33 all-play games in that stretch; Sinking = 5 of every 33 or fewer; Rising / Cooling = scoring rank moved four or more places; otherwise Holding.
| Team | Left on bench / wk | Losses the best lineup would have won | Wins vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Cutting | 42.0 | 5 of 9 | −0.5 |
| Eric Martel | 34.3 | 3 of 5 | +0.6 |
| Chris Klingenberg | 31.9 | 2 of 8 | +0.5 |
| Derrick Whitman | 28.6 | 5 of 10 | −1.1 |
| Keith Creelman | 28.2 | 5 of 11 | −0.1 |
| Eric Mannila | 27.6 | 5 of 10 | +1.9 |
| Matt Gerardi | 26.0 | 6 of 17 | −1.1 |
| Josh Martel | 23.7 | 4 of 15 | +1.4 |
| Ryan Bousquet | 22.9 | 4 of 13 | +1.0 |
| Bear Dunn | 22.9 | 2 of 2 | −0.1 |
| Shawn Blake | 22.9 | 5 of 10 | −2.0 |
| Brian Cross | 19.6 | 4 of 16 | −0.5 |
Bench points = the best possible lineup from the same roster, known only after the games, minus the lineup started. Wins vs expected = head-to-head wins minus the wins each week’s all-play rate would give.
| Team | Category, playoffs | Made it from the same All-Play rank, 2017–2025 | Made it with the same win total, 2021–2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Dunn | Contender 100.0% | 19/20 | 6/6 |
| Eric Martel | Contender 99.7% | 19/20 | 6/6 |
| Brian Cutting | Contender 95.7% | 15/16 | 8/12 |
| Shawn Blake | In the field 88.5% | 15/16 | 8/12 |
| Keith Creelman | In the field 76.1% | 7/19 | 8/12 |
| Chris Klingenberg | In the field 69.9% | 9/18 | 12/15 |
| Derrick Whitman | In the race 35.1% | 9/18 | 8/12 |
| Ryan Bousquet | Needs a run 22.4% | 1/17 | 4/20 |
| Eric Mannila | Needs a run 10.2% | 7/19 | 8/12 |
| Josh Martel | Life support 2.2% | 3/18 | 4/20 |
| Matt Gerardi | Life support 0.1% | 1/17 | 0/7 |
| Brian Cross | Life support 0.0% | 3/18 | 0/7 |
“Made it”: teams in the same position after Week 8 of a past season who went on to make the playoffs, out of all such teams. All-Play rank is grouped in pairs (tied teams share the higher rank); win totals are grouped in five bands, among seasons with the same number of games so far. Categories come from this week’s playoff odds: Contender 90% or better, In the field 60–90, In the race 25–60, Needs a run 8–25, Life support under 8.
How this was built — 3 notes
Sources. MFL scores, standings, schedules, transactions and Elias posts; the league’s D1 copies, checked against MFL; MFL projections as saved before each kickoff; nflverse expected points; the archived league Discord.
Status. Automated draft (ups_center_auto.py), generated Thu Nov 5, 8:40 AM ET. Not published.
Editor review. 1 item(s) are marked EDITOR REVIEW in this draft and must be resolved before publication.