Week 8 play of the week
32.6UPS points · Josh Martel
Week 8 recap
UPS CENTER
At the desk: Stuart, Rich & Boomer · Kenny Mayne in the Coffee Shop
Bear Dunn led Week 8 with 307.6. Automated draft from the league’s own data, awaiting the editor.
1 The Big Story — Bear Dunn is on a historic pace
Stuart
Bear Dunn scored 307.6 in Week 8, the best score of the week, and beat all eleven teams in All-Play. Bear Dunn swept both games: Eric Mannila by 89.5 and Chris Klingenberg by 78.4. Bear Dunn is 19–2 overall and 78–10 in All-Play.
Stuart
Bear Dunn scored 307.6 in Week 8, 144% of the league average that week; 22 of 2388 team-weeks since 2011 reached that share.
Rich
Bear Dunn has beaten at least nine of the eleven other teams in each of the last 7 weeks; 4 of 2388 team-weeks since 2011 reached a streak that long.
Rich
Here is what 78–10 means. Since 2011, 180 teams have reached Week 8 with a full record in the league archive. Exactly one had a better All-Play record at this point: Josh Martel’s 2018 team, which was 84–4.
Stuart
That is .886 for Bear Dunn. Josh Martel’s 2018 start was .955. After Bear Dunn, the next best starts are Derrick Whitman’s 2013 team at 73–15 and the 2015 team at 72–16, then Josh Martel’s 2021 team at 70–18.
Rich
And 2018 is the part worth sitting with. That team finished 25–1 with a 155–21 All-Play record, the best full season in the archive, and still lost the final. A great start is not a title.
Stuart
Bear Dunn knows both ends of this. In 2017 the start was 21–67 in All-Play at this point, and in 2021 22–66. Now it is 78–10 with a 99.8% chance at the first-round bye and a 39.3% chance at the title in the forecast. The next best title odds belong to Brian Cutting at 23.2%.
| Best All-Play starts through Week 8, 2011–2026 | Through Week 8 | Pct | How the season ended |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 · Josh Martel | 84–4 | .955 | Lost the final |
| 2026 · Bear Dunn | 78–10 | .886 | In progress |
| 2013 · Derrick Whitman | 73–15 | .830 | Champion |
| 2015 · Derrick Whitman | 72–16 | .818 | Third |
| 2021 · Josh Martel | 70–18 | .795 | Third |
All-Play counts every team’s weekly score against all eleven others, Weeks 1–8 of the regular season. Source: the league archive of weekly results, 2011–2025, plus the 2026 standings. 2010 is left out because its archived weekly scores conflict with themselves. The finish is the archive’s final standing.
Rich
Derrick Whitman’s playoff odds moved from 69.9% to 35.1% since last week.
Stuart
In Maddie Mondays, Keith Creelman is 75.5% to win the division and Ryan Bousquet is 22.3%.
2 Division Week — every game, one chapter per division
Stuart
Every game in Week 8 was played inside a division: four triangles of three teams, twelve games in all, and the same script in each one. One team swept. One split. One went home with nothing.
Stuart
Dog Pound 4 Life. Bear Dunn is the sweep, and you know that part. The pain is on the other side.
Rich
Chris Klingenberg scored 229.2 and went 1–1: beat Eric Mannila by 11.1; lost to Bear Dunn by 78.4. Chris Klingenberg is 13–8 overall but 1–5 against the division. Everything won has been won somewhere else.
Stuart
Eric Mannila scored 218.1 and went 0–2: lost to Bear Dunn by 89.5, Chris Klingenberg by 11.1. The best possible lineup, 244.5, would have won a game.
Stuart
Bear Dunn is 99.9% to win the division.
Kenny
Sunday, 4:35 PM, Bear Dunn: “Ryan, did Burrow ever have a game like this for you?” Bear Dunn scored 307.6 this week and posted three times.
Rich
Outlast PG Time. Eric Martel scored 243.5, with 35.5 from Ja'Marr Chase on 11 catches and went 2–0: beat Brian Cross by 61.7, Brian Cutting by 39.6. That makes Eric Martel 6–0 against the division.
Stuart
Brian Cutting scored 203.9 and went 1–1: beat Brian Cross by 22.1; lost to Eric Martel by 39.6.
Rich
Brian Cross scored 181.8 and went 0–2: lost to Eric Martel by 61.7, Brian Cutting by 22.1. Brian Cross is 0–6 inside the division and 0.0% to make the playoffs. The best possible lineup, 211.0, would have won a game.
Stuart
Brian Cutting is 12–9, and the forecast gives Cutting a better title chance, 23.2%, than Eric Martel, 18.6%.
Kenny
Sunday, 4:45 PM, Brian Cross: “Trevor Lawrence is up for sale !!” Then, at 7:19 PM: “#My Taxi Squad ..” Two hours and thirty-four minutes. Prediction: the sale sign is back up by Wednesday.
Stuart
Legion of Boom. Shawn Blake scored 210.7 and went 2–0: beat Derrick Whitman by 44.5, Matt Gerardi by 24.1.
Rich
Matt Gerardi scored 186.6, with 35.0 from Patrick Mahomes, and went 1–1: beat Derrick Whitman by 20.4; lost to Shawn Blake by 24.1.
Stuart
Derrick Whitman scored 166.2 and went 0–2: lost to Shawn Blake by 44.5, Matt Gerardi by 20.4. That was the lowest score of the week. The best possible lineup, 188.5, would have won a game.
Rich
Shawn Blake and Derrick Whitman are both 11–10, and the division is Blake’s at 79.9% to Whitman’s 20.0%. Blake’s scoring rank has slid from second to seventh over the last three weeks, and Blake is still the one leading.
Rich
Maddie Mondays. Josh Martel scored 218.5, with 32.6 from Harold Fannin on 10 catches and went 2–0: beat Keith Creelman by 35.0, Ryan Bousquet by 4.2, the closest game of the week.
Stuart
Ryan Bousquet scored 214.3 and went 1–1: beat Keith Creelman by 30.8; lost to Josh Martel by 4.2.
Rich
Keith Creelman scored 183.5 and went 0–2: lost to Josh Martel by 35.0, Ryan Bousquet by 30.8. The best possible lineup, 220.7, would have won a game.
Rich
Everyone in the division is 3–3 against it, so the overall record decides: Keith Creelman leads at 10–11, Ryan Bousquet is 8–13, and Josh Martel is 6–15.
Stuart
Keith Creelman is 75.5% to win the division.
Rich
Which makes Josh Martel the story. Through Week 7, Josh Martel was 14–63 in All-Play, tied for the fourth-worst start since 2011. This is the same owner who started 2018 at 84–4. Week 8 took Josh Martel to 22–66, and 13 earlier teams were at that mark or worse by now, so the climb has left the all-time basement. It is still the worst start of that owner’s career in the archive, one game under the 23–65 in 2022. Josh Martel also led the chat this week with 17 posts.
Kenny
Saturday, 9:35 AM, Keith Creelman: “6.4 > the 2.7 I'm currently getting”
| Division | Swept | Split | Shut out |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dog Pound 4 Life | Bear Dunn 307.6 | Chris Klingenberg 229.2 | Eric Mannila 218.1 |
| Outlast PG Time | Eric Martel 243.5 | Brian Cutting 203.9 | Brian Cross 181.8 |
| Legion of Boom | Shawn Blake 210.7 | Matt Gerardi 186.6 | Derrick Whitman 166.2 |
| Maddie Mondays | Josh Martel 218.5 | Ryan Bousquet 214.3 | Keith Creelman 183.5 |
Week 8 scores after Elias corrections. A team is Swept when it won every game it played in the group, Shut out when it won none and Split otherwise. History lines use the league archive of weekly results (2010 is left out because its archived scores conflict with themselves). Chat lines are owner posts in the league Discord, linked to the message.
3 Elias — half a point moved the board
Stuart
Breaking, and it is small. The league office posted 23 official stat changes for Week 8, and two touched a UPS starter. Tuli Tuipulotu picked up a second quarterback hit, which is half a point for Josh Martel. Dane Belton lost a tackle and gained an assist, and that cost Keith Creelman half a point.
Rich
Half a point, and it changed the table. Josh Martel went from 218.0 to 218.5. Eric Mannila scored 218.1. Before the correction Eric Mannila was ahead of Josh Martel by a tenth. Now Josh Martel is ahead by four tenths.
Stuart
That swapped one All-Play game between them. Josh Martel’s Week 8 All-Play went from 7–4 to 8–3, and Eric Mannila’s went from 8–3 to 7–4. Their season All-Play records moved with it: Josh Martel is 22–66, not 21–67; Eric Mannila is 41–47, not 42–46. Their Week 8 scoring ranks swapped too, Josh Martel fourth and Eric Mannila fifth.
Rich
Nobody’s result flipped. Keith Creelman’s 183.5 is still above Brian Cross’s 181.8, so the All-Play did not move. Every number in this issue already counts the corrected scores.
| Team | Published | After Elias | Change | Week 8 All-Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Martel | 218.0 | 218.5 | +0.5 | 7–4 → 8–3 |
| Eric Mannila | 218.1 | 218.1 | 0.0 | 8–3 → 7–4 |
| Keith Creelman | 184.0 | 183.5 | −0.5 | unchanged |
Source: MFL site news, Official Statistics Changes (23 items for Week 8), compared with the scores frozen when the recap was built. The league message goes out because an All-Play record changed.
4 Playoff Picture — updated after Week 8
Stuart
Here is the shape of it. Four division leaders: Bear Dunn at 99.9% to win Dog Pound 4 Life, Eric Martel at 84.8%, Shawn Blake at 79.9%, and Keith Creelman at 75.5%. Keith Creelman’s is the soft one, with Ryan Bousquet at 22.3% and Josh Martel at 2.2% sharing the rest.
Rich
Then the wild-card road. Brian Cutting is 95.7% to make the playoffs with only a 15.2% chance of winning the division, so Cutting gets in the other way. Chris Klingenberg is 69.9% with a 0.1% division chance, and Klingenberg is counting entirely on a wild card. Derrick Whitman is 35.1%, Bousquet 22.4%, and Mannila 10.2%.
Stuart
And the bottom: Josh Martel is at 2.2%, Matt Gerardi at 0.1%, and Brian Cross at 0.0%.
| Franchise | Playoffs | First-round bye | Wins division | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bear Dunn | 100.0% | 99.8% | 99.9% | 39.3% |
 Eric Martel | 99.7% | 78.0% | 84.8% | 18.6% |
 Brian Cutting | 95.7% | 13.6% | 15.2% | 23.2% |
 Shawn Blake | 88.5% | 8.0% | 79.9% | 9.1% |
 Keith Creelman | 76.1% | 0.1% | 75.5% | 3.5% |
 Chris Klingenberg | 69.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 3.8% |
 Derrick Whitman | 35.1% | 0.4% | 20.0% | 1.3% |
 Ryan Bousquet | 22.4% | 0.0% | 22.3% | 0.5% |
 Eric Mannila | 10.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| Josh Martel | 2.2% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
 Matt Gerardi | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
 Brian Cross | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Probabilities updated after Week 8 (Thu Nov 5, 8:23 AM ET), 10,000 simulated seasons. One team wins each division in every simulated season; division odds and the league’s title odds are rounded so each group still adds up to the whole.
5 The Plays That Made the Week — the bargains, the busts, and who they carried
Stuart
Start with the number nobody had. Joe Burrow was projected for 15.6 and scored 54.4 for Bear Dunn: 38-of-48 for 462 yards, five touchdowns, three interceptions and a rushing score. That is +38.8, the biggest bargain of the week. Tee Higgins added 42.3 against a 19.3 projection.
Rich
Bargains do not guarantee wins. Tyler Allgeier was projected for 4.7 and scored 38.5 for Eric Mannila, the second-biggest bargain of the week, and Eric Mannila went 0–2. Harold Fannin, Josh Martel’s tight end, was projected for 9.3 and put up 32.6 on 10 catches for 154 yards. Bhayshul Tuten, Shawn Blake’s running back, was projected for 9.4 and put up 31.5.
Stuart
Now the other side. Brian Cutting started Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers, projected for 16.4 and 16.1, and got 0.0 and 0.0 from them. That is 32.5 projected points that never showed up, and Brian Cutting still scored 203.9 and went 1–1.
Rich
Eric Martel’s Michael Penix Jr. went from 14.6 projected to −0.9, and Eric Martel still scored 243.5.
Rich
Keith Creelman was not so lucky. Jacoby Brissett was projected for 15.5 and scored 1.1, and Parker Washington was projected for 18.4 and scored 4.0. Together that is 28.8 points under projection, in a week Keith Creelman scored 183.5 and lost both games.
Stuart
On defense, Quinnen Williams gave Shawn Blake 17.5 on a 4.3 projection, and Chris Klingenberg’s linebackers Alex Anzalone and CJ Allen beat their projections by 10.9 and 10.1. Klingenberg scored 229.2, third best of the week.
Week 8 play of the week
35.5UPS points · Eric Martel
Ja'Marr Chase
11 catches on 16 targets for 141 and 1 TD; 1 tackles
Week 8 play of the week
54.4UPS points · Bear Dunn
Week 8 play of the week
35.0UPS points · Matt Gerardi
Patrick Mahomes
30-of-41 for 321, 3 TD; 2 carries for 6
The full projection ledger
Offense busts Projected → scored
- Lamar Jackson (QB, Brian Cutting)1 passes, 15 air yards · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET16.4 → 0.0-16.4
- Zay Flowers (WR, Brian Cutting)5 targets, 43 air yards · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET16.1 → 0.0-16.1
- Michael Penix Jr. (QB, Eric Martel)24 passes, 209 air yards, 5 carries · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET14.6 → -0.9-15.5
- Jacoby Brissett (QB, Keith Creelman)23 passes, 266 air yards, 3 carries · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET15.5 → 1.1-14.4
- Parker Washington (WR, Keith Creelman)2 targets, 19 air yards, 1 carry · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET18.4 → 4.0-14.4
Offense bargains Projected → scored
- Joe Burrow (QB, Bear Dunn)48 passes, 453 air yards, 3 carries · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET15.6 → 54.4+38.8
- Tyler Allgeier (RB, Eric Mannila)11 carries, 5 targets · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET4.7 → 38.5+33.8
- Harold Fannin (TE, Josh Martel)12 targets, 84 air yards · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET9.3 → 32.6+23.3
- Tee Higgins (WR, Bear Dunn)11 targets, 121 air yards · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET19.3 → 42.3+23.0
- Bhayshul Tuten (RB, Shawn Blake)16 carries, 2 targets · MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET9.4 → 31.5+22.1
Defense busts Projected → scored
- Tykee Smith (DB, Derrick Whitman)MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET8.3 → 2.1-6.2
- Keisean Nixon (DB, Brian Cutting)MFL proj. Thu 7:47 PM ET · kickoff Thu 8:15 PM ET8.7 → 2.6-6.1
- Jack Campbell (LB, Eric Martel)MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET7.4 → 1.5-5.9
- Josiah Trotter (LB, Brian Cutting)MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET9.0 → 4.0-5.0
- Nik Bonitto (DL, Brian Cutting)MFL proj. Sun 2:20 PM ET · kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET6.4 → 2.0-4.4
Defense bargains Projected → scored
- Quinnen Williams (DL, Shawn Blake)MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET4.3 → 17.5+13.2
- Alex Anzalone (LB, Chris Klingenberg)MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET5.6 → 16.5+10.9
- CJ Allen (LB, Chris Klingenberg)MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET1.4 → 11.5+10.1
- Jordan Battle (DB, Brian Cross)MFL proj. Sun 12:03 PM ET · kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET7.6 → 17.1+9.5
- George Karlaftis (DL, Chris Klingenberg)MFL proj. Sun 2:20 PM ET · kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET5.1 → 14.5+9.4
Started players only. Projection source: each player’s last MFL projection saved before his own kickoff, captured Thu Oct 29, 7:47 PM ET, Sun Nov 1, 12:03 PM ET, Sun Nov 1, 2:20 PM ET; every row shows its capture time and the player’s own kickoff, and every capture came first. 192 offensive and defensive starters graded; 0 not graded for want of a pregame capture. Largest gaps among graded starters, not every starter.
6 The Season So Far — who is real, who is rising, and what history says
Stuart
Treat the last three weeks as their own season. In Weeks 6–8, Bear Dunn is 33–0 in All-Play and Eric Martel is 29–4. Those are the only two Dominant teams in the league. The next best are Chris Klingenberg at 22–11 and Brian Cutting at 21–12.
Rich
The movers. Chris Klingenberg climbed from eighth in scoring in Weeks 1–5 to fourth in Weeks 6–8. Shawn Blake fell from second to seventh and is 13–20 over the stretch. Keith Creelman went from fifth to eighth, and Cross from ninth to twelfth.
Stuart
Then ask what history says about where everyone sits after Week 8. The Survival Line looks at past seasons: of teams with Bear Dunn’s All-Play rank at this point, 19 of 20 made the playoffs; Eric Martel’s group, 19 of 20; Brian Cutting’s group, 15 of 16; Shawn Blake’s group, 15 of 16.
Rich
Keith Creelman is where the two histories disagree. Only 7 of 19 teams with that All-Play rank made it. But 8 of 12 teams with that win total did. The record says Keith Creelman is fine. The scoring says history is not so sure. The forecast lands at 76.1%.
Stuart
At the bottom, Matt Gerardi is 1 of 17 by All-Play rank and 0 of 7 by wins, and Brian Cross is 3 of 18 and 0 of 7. Their odds are 0.1% and 0.0%. Josh Martel is 3 of 18 and 4 of 20, and 2.2%.
Rich
And luck. Eric Mannila is +1.9 wins over what the All-Play rate predicts, the most in the league, and Shawn Blake is −2.0, the fewest. Brian Cutting leaves 42.0 points on the bench every week, also the most, and 5 of 9 losses would have been wins with the best lineup.
The standings, Heat Check and Survival Line tables
| Franchise | Division | Record | Week 8 all-play | All-play | Points for |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Dunn | leader | 19–2 | 11–0 | 78–10 | 2,149.2 |
| Eric Martel | leader | 16–5 | 10–1 | 66–22 | 1,926.1 |
| Shawn Blake | leader | 11–10 | 5–6 | 53–35 | 1,824.3 |
| Brian Cutting | 12–9 | 4–7 | 52–36 | 1,803.8 | |
| Chris Klingenberg | 13–8 | 9–2 | 51–37 | 1,674.4 | |
| Keith Creelman | leader | 10–11 | 2–9 | 41–47 | 1,694.9 |
| Derrick Whitman | 11–10 | 0–11 | 49–39 | 1,729.7 | |
| Eric Mannila | 11–10 | 7–4 | 41–47 | 1,658.6 | |
| Ryan Bousquet | 8–13 | 6–5 | 30–58 | 1,545.6 | |
| Matt Gerardi | 4–17 | 3–8 | 23–65 | 1,484.2 | |
| Josh Martel | 6–15 | 8–3 | 22–66 | 1,472.8 | |
| Brian Cross | 5–16 | 1–10 | 22–66 | 1,519.2 |
In the same order as the league standings page: the current playoff field first (division leaders take the top two places), then everyone else; every place goes by all-play percentage, then overall record, then points for, then head-to-head.
| Week 8 matchup | Our favorite | Final | Called it? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Cutting vs Brian Cross | Brian Cutting (83%) | 203.9–181.8 | yes |
| Eric Martel vs Brian Cross | Eric Martel (82%) | 243.5–181.8 | yes |
| Bear Dunn vs Chris Klingenberg | Bear Dunn (78%) | 307.6–229.2 | yes |
| Keith Creelman vs Josh Martel | Keith Creelman (78%) | 183.5–218.5 | no |
| Bear Dunn vs Eric Mannila | Bear Dunn (77%) | 307.6–218.1 | yes |
| Keith Creelman vs Ryan Bousquet | Keith Creelman (66%) | 183.5–214.3 | no |
| Ryan Bousquet vs Josh Martel | Ryan Bousquet (64%) | 214.3–218.5 | no |
| Derrick Whitman vs Matt Gerardi | Derrick Whitman (52%) | 166.2–186.6 | no |
| Shawn Blake vs Matt Gerardi | Shawn Blake (52%) | 210.7–186.6 | yes |
| Brian Cutting vs Eric Martel | Brian Cutting (51%) | 203.9–243.5 | no |
| Shawn Blake vs Derrick Whitman | Shawn Blake (50%) | 210.7–166.2 | yes |
| Eric Mannila vs Chris Klingenberg | Eric Mannila (50%) | 218.1–229.2 | no |
Last week’s published preview, graded against the final scores: favorites won 6 of 12.
| Team Reading | All-Play Wks 6–8 (season) | Scoring rank Wks 1–5 → Wks 6–8 |
|---|---|---|
| Bear Dunn Dominant | 33–0 (78–10) | 1st → 1st |
| Eric Martel Dominant | 29–4 (66–22) | 3rd → 2nd |
| Chris Klingenberg Rising | 22–11 (51–37) | 8th → 4th |
| Brian Cutting Holding | 21–12 (52–36) | 4th → 3rd |
| Eric Mannila Holding | 18–15 (41–47) | 7th → 6th |
| Derrick Whitman Holding | 17–16 (49–39) | 6th → 5th |
| Shawn Blake Cooling | 13–20 (53–35) | 2nd → 7th |
| Josh Martel Holding | 11–22 (22–66) | 12th → 10th |
| Ryan Bousquet Holding | 10–23 (30–58) | 10th → 9th |
| Keith Creelman Holding | 9–24 (41–47) | 5th → 8th |
| Brian Cross Holding | 8–25 (22–66) | 9th → 12th |
| Matt Gerardi Holding | 7–26 (23–65) | 11th → 11th |
Sorted by All-Play over Weeks 6–8; the full-season All-Play record is in parentheses. Reading, applied in order: Dominant = at least 28 of every 33 all-play games in that stretch; Sinking = 5 of every 33 or fewer; Rising / Cooling = scoring rank moved four or more places; otherwise Holding.
| Team | Left on bench / wk | Losses the best lineup would have won | Wins vs expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Cutting | 42.0 | 5 of 9 | −0.5 |
| Eric Martel | 34.3 | 3 of 5 | +0.6 |
| Chris Klingenberg | 31.9 | 2 of 8 | +0.5 |
| Derrick Whitman | 28.6 | 5 of 10 | −1.1 |
| Keith Creelman | 28.2 | 5 of 11 | −0.1 |
| Eric Mannila | 27.6 | 5 of 10 | +1.9 |
| Matt Gerardi | 26.0 | 6 of 17 | −1.1 |
| Josh Martel | 23.7 | 4 of 15 | +1.4 |
| Ryan Bousquet | 22.9 | 4 of 13 | +1.0 |
| Bear Dunn | 22.9 | 2 of 2 | −0.1 |
| Shawn Blake | 22.9 | 5 of 10 | −2.0 |
| Brian Cross | 19.6 | 4 of 16 | −0.5 |
Bench points = the best possible lineup from the same roster, known only after the games, minus the lineup started. Wins vs expected = head-to-head wins minus the wins each week’s all-play rate would give.
| Team | Category, playoffs | Made it from the same All-Play rank, 2017–2025 | Made it with the same win total, 2021–2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Dunn | Contender 100.0% | 19/20 | 6/6 |
| Eric Martel | Contender 99.7% | 19/20 | 6/6 |
| Brian Cutting | Contender 95.7% | 15/16 | 8/12 |
| Shawn Blake | In the field 88.5% | 15/16 | 8/12 |
| Keith Creelman | In the field 76.1% | 7/19 | 8/12 |
| Chris Klingenberg | In the field 69.9% | 9/18 | 12/15 |
| Derrick Whitman | In the race 35.1% | 9/18 | 8/12 |
| Ryan Bousquet | Needs a run 22.4% | 1/17 | 4/20 |
| Eric Mannila | Needs a run 10.2% | 7/19 | 8/12 |
| Josh Martel | Life support 2.2% | 3/18 | 4/20 |
| Matt Gerardi | Life support 0.1% | 1/17 | 0/7 |
| Brian Cross | Life support 0.0% | 3/18 | 0/7 |
“Made it”: teams in the same position after Week 8 of a past season who went on to make the playoffs, out of all such teams. All-Play rank is grouped in pairs (tied teams share the higher rank); win totals are grouped in five bands, among seasons with the same number of games so far. Categories come from this week’s playoff odds: Contender 90% or better, In the field 60–90, In the race 25–60, Needs a run 8–25, Life support under 8.
How this was built — 3 notes
Sources. MFL scores, standings, schedules, transactions and Elias posts; the league’s D1 copies, checked against MFL; MFL projections as saved before each kickoff; nflverse expected points; the archived league Discord.
Status. Automated draft (ups_center_auto.py), generated Thu Nov 5, 8:40 AM ET. Not published.